At COP-28, under the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, Canada committed to double the rate of annual energy efficiency improvements by 2030 compared to the 2022 baseline. Recently, the country introduced new programs and initiatives to enhance energy efficiency at the federal level. The Canadian Department for Natural Resources (NRCan) seeks to explore recent policy and program strategies and assess long-term impacts on the energy system.
In this context, NRCan has commissioned Enerdata to update a seminal study conducted in 2018 by the International Energy Agency, emphasising the potential of energy efficiency to impact various sectors of the Canadian economy. The purpose of this new project with Enerdata is to better understand detailed energy-use historical data and projections for Canada to 2050, with a specific focus on energy efficiency and potential energy savings. This work will involve modelling energy demand and energy efficiency measures across all sectors: industry, transportation, and buildings (both residential and commercial), through a possible pathway contributing to net-zero emissions by 2050. While the primary focus is on energy efficiency, the work will also estimate the impact on GHG emission reduction alongside energy savings. Additionally, the project will estimate the cost-effectiveness of the various measures. This will enable NRCan and the Office of Energy Efficiency (OEE) to prioritise between measures based on funding availability, if necessary.
The study will use a combination of the POLES-Enerdata and EnerMED models to generate comparable estimates and pathways that align with the three scenarios outlined in the IEA’s original 2018 study. This will enable the OEE to compare the findings of both studies and conduct an impact analysis across the different scenarios. Given its long-standing expertise in energy modelling and the high-quality of its underlying databases, Enerdata is well-equipped to prepare customised energy and emissions forecasts at country level up to 2050 and beyond.
Enerdata will work closely with NRCan and the OEE to define the storylines and assumptions for the three scenarios: Current Policy, Announced Pledges, and Energy Efficiency. These scenarios will then be modelled within the